Rep. Brad Miller, Bob Etheridge, David Price, and Gallup's Withering Poll Numbers (There Are No Safe Seats) ...

polifrog




With the absence of polling in district (NC-13) we are forced to turn to more subjective polling sources. Gallup has been running a series of polls indicating voter preferences in the upcoming
midterms. These polls give us an indication of the substantial adverse political conditions facing Brad Miller, Bob Etheridge, David Price, and GK Butterfield.

• Week 1 --I had first referred to the voter turnout models by Gallup as possibly flaky. No longer.

• Week 2 --I then referred to them as less flaky the second week. No longer.

• Week 3 --A trend has been born with week three...Advantage Republican.

Week 4 -- The trend has been sustained, though with modest weakening ... Advantage still Republican:

Under the high voter turnout:
Week (4): 43 /52
Week (3): 42 / 53
Week (2): 41 / 53
Week (1): 40 / 53

Under the low voter turnout:
Week (4): 41 / 55
Week (3): 39 / 56
Week (2): 39 / 56
Week (1): 38 / 56


=================


For reference to Gallup's predictive ability I give this via Morning Jay of weeklystandard.com:



=========

Finally, if you assume Brad Miller, David Price, and Bob Etheridge are in "safe" seats, then think again. RCP puts Ethridge in "Leans Dem." and both Miller and Price in "Likely Dem."




The point is, these guys are weak, none have a "safe" seat, so don't let yourself be convinced otherwise and let inertia get the better of you.
-- GO VOTE!

--GO VOTE!



out