There is no free in liberty.


Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Reading Supreme Tea Leaves...


Weekly Standard:

In fact, Obamacare's best proponents today weren't the solicitor general; they were Justices Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg.


Ginsburg and Breyer made clear that they support the individual mandate; Elena Kagan was less effusive, but she seemed more or less supportive, too. On the other side there is Scalia, Chief Justice John Roberts (who cast serious doubt on the government's attempt to define the market broadly or construct limiting principles on this new federal power), and Justice Samuel Alito (who pressed back very hard on the notion that the mandate is necessary to prevent the uninsured from shifting costs on to the general public). Justice Clarence Thomas was characteristically silent, although it is a bit hard to imagine him siding with the government, given his longstanding constitutional principles.

Kennedy, of course, remains in the middle. But for all of the talk that Roberts could ultimately provide a sixth vote in favor of Obamacare, another justice’s questions hinted that there could be a sixth vote in the other direction.

...it's impossible to say whether the Court will affirm the mandate or strike it down. Still, based on the tone of questioning alone, Obamacare's advocates ought to worry less about winning Roberts, and worry more about losing Sotomayor.


No comments:

Post a Comment