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Monday, March 26, 2012

Graphing That BLS-BS... and America's Second Keynesian Great Depression...


Notice how the unemployment rate has fallen parallel with the labor participation rate while the employment to population ratio has remained flat.

We are moving sideways in the same way the US did during the Great Depression.  In each depression (30's and 2008) we used massive injections of stimulus to forestall the economy's return to equilibrium because the return to appropriate pricing is painful.  This results in a broken market that can not heal or a Keynesian Depression.

Conservative Commune:

...In the most recent cycle, the employment-to-population ratio traces out an L shape, but the unemployment rate falls because the participation rate declines substantially (a much more gradual decline was expected by many given the aging of the baby boomers); in other words, a larger share of the population is out of the labor force rather than participating and being unemployed.
We’ve seen a lot of happy talk about how well the economy is doing now. Most of that comes from the media which has about as much of a grasp on the economy and how it works as does the current occupant of the White House.
A look at those four recessionary cycles gives context to the depth of the one we’re currently battling. If you look closely at the part of the chart depicting our current situation, you realize that while we’ve seemingly bottomed out, the employment-to-population ration is not rising. And that, of course, is because of the horrendous drop in the labor force participation. [...]



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