Civitas poll -- Rep. Mike McIntyre 42% -- Ilario Pantano 52% (Indicates Brad Miller Weakness)

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Civitas:

...looking at those who are most likely to vote in 2010, Pantano’s lead jumps to a 52 percent-42 percent margin. In addition, Republicans are heavily backing Pantano (81 percent-14 percent), along with unaffiliated voters by a 61 percent-34 percent margin. Democratic voters are in support of McIntyre by 71 percent-16 percent.
Furthermore, 46 percent of voters think McIntyre is a moderate compared to 21 percent who think he is a conservative. Nineteen percent of voters said he is a liberal, and 14 percent said they are not sure.

Contrast McIntyre's current Civitas polling information with his past four election results:

• (2008)69-31
• (2006)73-27
• (2004)73-27
• (2002)72-27

Now contrast Brad Miller's past four election results to McIntyre's:

• (2008)66-34
• (2006)64-36
• (2004)59-41
• (2002)55-42

It is becoming increasingly difficult to argue that Rep. Brad Miller is not in danger of losing his seat to challenger Bill Randall.

Update:
I thought I would add that to some degree McIntyre's difficulties stem from his lack of support for certain bills (No on ObamaCare, No on the Bailout, No on Cap & Trade, but Yes on The Stimulus) over the past congressional session. The result is that some of his base feels unrepresented. In short, McIntyre lost his base while at the same time, never fully having had all the conservatives, has lost conservatives as well.

This is not the case for Brad Miller. I do not believe a man could rally his socialist base more than Brad Miller has.



[edit: stats in title were transposed]
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