Severe Poll Turnout Trouble for Rep. Brad Miller (NC-13), David Price (NC-4), Bob Etheridge (NC-2), GK Butterfield (NC-1)...

polifrog



Bye, Brad Miller
Bye, David Price
Bye, Bob Etheridge


Gallup:

Taking Gallup's final survey's margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.

It should be noted, however, that this year's 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.

• Week 1 --I had first referred to the voter turnout models by Gallup as possibly flaky. No longer.

• Week 2 --I then referred to them as less flaky the second week. No longer.

• Week 3 --A trend has been born with week three...Advantage Republican.
  

• Week 4 -- The trend has been sustained, though with modest weakening ... Advantage still Republican:

Week 5 -- Last poll by Gallup before the Nov 2 election found here. Advantage remains Republican with extremely modest slide back in the Republican direction. The weakening seen in week 4 has been stemmed.

Under the high voter turnout:
Week (5): 42 /52
Week (4): 43 /52
Week (3): 42 / 53
Week (2): 41 / 53
Week (1): 40 / 53

Under the low voter turnout:
Week (5): 40 / 55
Week (4): 41 / 55
Week (3): 39 / 56
Week (2): 39 / 56
Week (1): 38 / 56


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For reference to Gallup's predictive ability I give this via Morning Jay of weeklystandard.com:



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Finally, if you assume Brad Miller, David Price, and Bob Etheridge are in "safe" seats, then think again. RCP puts Ethridge in "Leans Dem." and both Miller and Price in "Likely Dem."




The point is, these guys are weak, none have a "safe" seat, so don't let yourself be convinced otherwise and let inertia get the better of you.
-- GO VOTE!

-- GO VOTE!



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