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Monday, June 21, 2010

(NC-13) Runoff Prediction - Bill Randall , Bernie Reeves

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Bill Randall and Bernie Reeves have been pitted against one another due to NC election rules that trigger a runoff between the top two vote receivers if no candidate clears the required 40% minimum.

There have been two debates. One attended by the public and one televised. Both were reviewed by Polifrog here and here. The first was quite cordial while the second was significantly more contentious due to Reeves' series of attacks, a tactic the Reeves Campaign began to employ after the first debate. As a result the past month has seen a series of fair criticisms punctuated by character attacks on Bill Randall by Bernie Reeves. In both debates Reeves showed either flashes of anger (to guffaws in the crowd) or moments of clear frustration.

By contrast, there have been no attacks on Reeves by Randall and no anger or frustration expressed by Randall. Polifrog, though, has become concerned with Randall's over reliance on pat, seemingly memorized answers to questions, while at the same time often stumbling through answers to questions that are outside the normal pap candidates endure. A perfect example of this was Randall's recent flap over what the press characterized as an accusation of collusion between BP and the Government to cause the Gulf oil spill. Of course, Randall made no such accusation. His fumbling through his answer, though, allowed for an easy twisting of his words into something he did not intend.

Reeves has many traditional strengths. Money (as compared to Randall), old establishment experience in Carter Wrenn, and what Polifrog believes is an often overlooked support in the local press due to Reeves' long history as a part of the journalism business in Raleigh. This strength was best employed by Biesecker in his spin on the Randall BP/Government collusion statements as pointed out by Polifrog here.

Randall's strengths are fewer but perhaps more influential. He seems to have the excitement of the people at his back. Polifrog has watched this excitement daily through google alerts which admittedly became biased after Randall's BP statements, but prior to which Randall dominated in terms of hits. Not only does he have the excitement of the people, but he has history at his back as well. It seems a new type of republican is sweeping into office due to the disappointment that was the republican congress during the Bush years and the shock of the Obama agenda. Reeves seems, fairly or unfairly, tied to that disappointing congress under Bush while Randall has successfully tied himself to the energized Tea Party movement.

For these reasons Polifrog calls it, and not without reservation, for Bill Randall.


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