Material Gains, Vanishing Leads -- Newt 41% Romney 32% Florida.....

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Rasmussen

Less than two weeks ago, Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%).

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SC Poll - Insider Advantage - Newt 32%, Romney 29%...

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This puts Newt and Romney within the margin of error for the lead, Newt edge.


SavannaNow:

Gingrich reversed the momentum of Mitt Romney who had an expanding lead in the same poll Sunday night.

Gingrich’s 32 percent to Romney’s 29 puts the two inside the poll’s 3.8 percent margin of error, but the 11-point lead Romney held in the Sunday evening survey has evaporated.

It would be interesting if the Tea Party were to coalesce behind Newt despite Beck's vehement disapproval.





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Is Ron Paul Becoming the "Not Romney" Choice?

polifrog



This poll (Jan 4-5 and Jan 11-12) of SC has some interesting results:

• Ron Paul has surged relative to  Santorum, Paul taking around as much as Santorum has lost.
• It is a three-way race between Paul, Romney, and Gingrich; Romney leading Gingrich by 4 and Paul by 9. 
• Independents prefer Paul to Romney.
• Romney has more independent support that Gingrich
• The Tea Party supports Gingrich the most followed by Romney then Paul but the differences are minor.
• Huntsman polls so little as to be out.
• Gingrich runs away with the evangelical vote.
• Evangelicals have the strength of  heightened voting unity relative to the Tea Party.

As long as the  Tea Party is divided it  will have no influence.

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Fearing and Loathing Another Obama Emaculation ...

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USN:

In our New Year's poll, when asked what news event they fear most about 2012, Americans by a margin of two-to-one said Obama's reelection. Only 16 percent said they fear the Democrat won't win a second term, while 33 percent said they fear four more years.

When you're a looser every board is a steel beam.




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A Couple of Polls Indicating Where Tea Party Support May Have Been and Where it May Currently Be...

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Only three of the candidates have greater Tea Party support than rejection and they are Bachman, Gingrich, and Santorum.  Of those three Santorum garners 23% of Tea Party respondents, Newt 18%, Bachman 15%.

Furthermore, Santorum's base is top tier, nearly tying with the bases of Paul and Romney,  neither of which have Tea Party support in excess of Tea party rejection.

Santorum seems to be the strongest of the Tea Party candidates at the moment .






     PPP:



   






And for reference there is this older poll by CNN/ORC:

                                        Tea Pty     Tea Pty  Tea Pty
                                Total  Support  Neutral   Oppose
                                -----  -------  -------  -------
Bachmann                         22%         27%      17%       N/A
Gingrich                            12%         11%      13%       N/A
Huntsman                          3%           1%       4%          N/A
Paul                                 25%         25%      22%        N/A
Perry                                9%           6%      14%          N/A
Romney                           12%         14%      10%        N/A
Santorum                          3%           3%       4%          N/A
Someone else                     1%          *        1%            N/A
None/no one                      7%          5%       9%          N/A
No opinion                        7%          7%       6%          N/A
Sampling Error                +/-4.5     +/-6.5   +/-7.5        
 * percentage less than 1%




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Final PPP Iowa Poll: Paul 20%, Romney 19%, Santorum 18%...

polifrog





Is the Tea Party coalescing around Santorum?

There is definitely a Santorum Surge at the cost of all the front runners.



PPP:

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Rasmussen Poll Finds Obama Unable to Break 43% Against Unknown Thad McCotter...

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Sunshine State News:

While there has been buzz in the Beltway that McCotter could run for the Republican nomination, he has yet to take any formal steps in the race. Obama leads him in the poll 43 percent to 19 percent …

The article takes the view that this is good news for Obama when in fact our current president is unable to garner more than 43% against an unknown and undeclared Thaddeus McCotter.

Presidential weakness

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Those Possibly Flaky Gallup Poll Turnout Numbers Not So Flaky Anymore...

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I had first referred to last week's voter turnout models by Gallup as possibly flaky. No longer.

Gallup has produced two likely voter turnout models, high and a low. In both cases the estimated turnout has Republicans out pacing Democrats by double digits.

Under the high voter turnout:
Last week: 40 / 53
This week: 41 / 53

Under the low voter turnout:
Last week: 38 / 56
This week: 39 / 56

These new numbers are essentially unchanged and stunning. The 1994 election that brought Gingrich to power had only an advantage of only around 5. These numbers indicate an advantage triple that.

This does not bode well for Rep. Brad Miller, Bob Etheridge, David Price, Larry Kissell, GK Butterfield or any other Democrat, but then, it should be no surprise that governance through the tyranny of the majority yields such results.

Truly stunning.



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