PolifrogBlog

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Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts

Thursday, September 6, 2012

2008 - 41% D to 33% R... 2010 35% both D and R ... 2012 34% D to 36% R...

polifrog




Voter Identification

2008 - 41% D to 33% R
2010 - 35% D to 35% R
2012 - 34% D to 36% R







Oh my...
... Pollster Scott Rasmussen periodically estimates party identification on the basis of thousands of robocall interviews of likely voters.

His findings have been uncannily close to the exit polls. In the last quarter of 2008, his party-ID numbers were 41 percent Democratic, 33 percent Republican. The 2008 exit poll showed Democrats ahead in party ID by 39 to 32 percent.

In the third quarter of 2010, Rasmussen pegged party ID as tied at 35 percent. The 2010 exit poll showed it exactly the same.

The third quarter of 2012 is not yet over. But the Rasmussen party-ID numbers for the second and third quarters combined are ominous for Obama’s party: 34 percent Democratic, 36 percent Republican. Republicans are up only 3 percentage points from 2008, but Democrats are down 7 percentage points.

 Remember this when you see polls skewing Democrat by 12 and 15...




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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Polls and the Progressive's New Tool - the Coercive Tax...

polifrog




What would we call a tax on people who choose not to vote?

A poll penalty? a poll penalty/tax? a penalty poll tax?or perhaps a poll tax penalty?

I suspect such a poll 'penalty/tax', as Pelosi might call it, could easily  become be a potential source of future voting power for Democrats as it would drive the shiftless dependent class to the polls  more than making up for losses in traditional liberal voting blocks elsewhere. Labor, for instance.

Contemplate  the moralizing, though.  Is coercion of the vote  any more moral than erecting barriers to the vote?

I suspect Democrats would find such coercion as moral as  ObamaCare coercion.  Perhaps even more so.

And I imagine progressives would also find moralizing the ID's necessary for the policing of such a penalty/tax quite easy as the end (near 100% voter turnout) would easily justify the means in their thinking.  I doubt even the necessity of IRS enforcement which would undoubtedly fall more heavily on those least likely to vote, the Democrat's voting block of poor dependents,  would be much of a moral hurdle.  If troubled American progressives might argue something along the lines of What's the Matter with Kansas? or simply claim, it's for their own good.

As we have learned from our experience with ObamaCare, the end justifies any and all means when it is for their own good, for the good of society, for the good of the mother country.



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Friday, February 17, 2012

ObamaCare Polling Over Time...

polifrog



It will be interesting what impact the Obama contraceptive edict has on the trend in the snapshot below over the coming weeks.

HuffingtonPost Interactive:







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Monday, January 30, 2012

New Momentum for Newt in Florida with Men ... and Latinos?

polifrog




It may be that Santorum bruised Romney on the RomneyCare attack, but more likely Romney went too dirty for too long on Newt.

Romney 36%
Newt 31%

NewsMax:

Towery noted that his poll showed a surge for Romney on Wednesday, with him leading Gingrich by 8 points. The InsiderAdvantage poll was among the first to show Romney's resurgence after his dismal showing in the S. Carolina primary.

...

"The trend is favoring Gingrich," Towery said, noting that while Romney's lead was still outside the margin of error of 3.8 percent, "It's not by much."

And most interestingly:

As for Florida's important Latino vote, InsiderAdvantage has Gingrich beating Romney by a large margin, leading 42 percent to 29 percent.





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Monday, April 4, 2011

Cutting Pennies While Spending Borrowed Dollars...

polifrog



The Hill:
A new poll conducted for The Hill showed 41 percent polled said the GOP had been “more reasonable,” while 29 percent said Democrats had been more sensible. Twenty-two percent said neither party was more reasonable than the other, and 7 percent were not sure.

Sounds good, but the current squabbling over 30-100 billion in cut amounts to would only fund 1- 3 weeks of current deficit spending.




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Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Civitas poll -- Rep. Mike McIntyre 42% -- Ilario Pantano 52% (Indicates Brad Miller Weakness)

polifrog




Civitas:

...looking at those who are most likely to vote in 2010, Pantano’s lead jumps to a 52 percent-42 percent margin. In addition, Republicans are heavily backing Pantano (81 percent-14 percent), along with unaffiliated voters by a 61 percent-34 percent margin. Democratic voters are in support of McIntyre by 71 percent-16 percent.
Furthermore, 46 percent of voters think McIntyre is a moderate compared to 21 percent who think he is a conservative. Nineteen percent of voters said he is a liberal, and 14 percent said they are not sure.

Contrast McIntyre's current Civitas polling information with his past four election results:

  • (2008)69-31
  • (2006)73-27
  • (2004)73-27
  • (2002)72-27

Now contrast Brad Miller's past four election results to McIntyre's:

  • (2008)66-34
  • (2006)64-36
  • (2004)59-41
  • (2002)55-42

It is becoming increasingly difficult to argue that Rep. Brad Miller is not in danger of losing his seat to challenger Bill Randall.

Update:
I thought I would add that to some degree McIntyre's difficulties stem from his lack of support for certain bills (No on ObamaCare, No on the Bailout, No on Cap & Trade, but Yes on The Stimulus) over the past congressional session. The result is that some of his base feels unrepresented. In short, McIntyre lost his base while at the same time, never fully having had all the conservatives, has lost conservatives as well.

This is not the case for Brad Miller. I do not believe a man could rally his socialist base more than Brad Miller has.



[edit: stats in title were transposed]
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Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Rep. Brad Miller -- And His Campaign Advertising That Can Only That Can Only Remind His State That it Was Forgotten...

polifrog



First some polling info via Dick Morris on Hannity:


  • Number of districts a republican is leading the incumbent in the polls -- 54
  • Number of districts with a republican within 5 points of a democrat polling under 50 -- 19
  • 160 districts represented by democrats that have gone unpolled.

Brad Miller is one of those 160 that have gone unpolled.


In a normal election this would be taken as a sign of strength, but this round of elections is the first in memory that has followed two years governance through Broken Consent.

  • ObamaCare
  • Cap & Trade
  • Trillions in a Financial Bailout for the Banks
  • The Failed Stimulus


None of these had the support of the citizenry.

When Brad Miller put 1/6 of the North Carolina's economy (the state he represents) under federal influence through ObamaCare he diminished North Carolina, the state he represents.

When Brad Miller voted in favor of raising the utility rates of all North Carolinians through Cap & Trade he forgot the people he represents.

When Brad Miller voted in favor of bailing out the mega monster mega banks he forgot the people he represents while picking their pockets and never forgetting the banks.

And when Brad Miller voted in favor of the stimulus bill he forgot not only the people, but the progeny of his state while never forgetting to grow governance through stimulus.


Brad Miller's current silence is understandable in this light. He has no record to run on. None. Polling would not only bring attention to him, but to his awful record of forgetting those who he represents while lavishing the wealth of his state's citizenry on those who he does not represent.




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Monday, September 13, 2010

North Carolina's Enthusiasm Gap -- We're Pretty Pissed at Obama's Governance....

polifrog



I noticed this in the silly Andi Griffith poll PPP released a week ago.
One of the few takeaways is that 45% of NC voters now claim to have voted for Obama in 2008. 54% of NC voters claim to have voted for McCain in 2008. Embarrassment.
Now PPP has a post comparing the various states that they have polled over the last month and NC ranks high on the dissatisfaction with Obama meter. In fact, if the election were held today Obama would loose in NC.

This 10 point swing two months from the election does not bode well for Brad Miller, Bob Etheridge, or David Price.

State

Projected 2010 Electorate

2008 Result

Enthusiasm Gap

Texas

McCain +11

McCain +11

None

Maine

Obama +7

Obama +18

D -11

Ohio

McCain +3

Obama +4

D -7

Alaska

McCain +16

McCain +21

D +5

North Carolina

McCain +9

Obama +1

D -10

Louisiana

McCain +20

McCain +19

D -1

Florida

McCain +3

Obama +3

D -6

Illinois

Obama +9

Obama +25

D -16

Pennsylvania

McCain +1

Obama +10

D -11

Missouri

McCain + 7

Tie

D -7








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Friday, September 10, 2010

Does the Rep. David Price/William Lawson Poll Suggest Weakness for Rep. Brad Miller?

polifrog


In light of the recent David Price/William Lawson poll that puts Price behind his challenger Lawson I have been comparing Brad Miller's election returns to David Price's election returns over the past 3 cycles.

Brad Miller and David Price both have districts that have been historically safe, but more importantly to this post, similar over time. If the poll numbers for Lawson/Price are truly as close as the Action Solutions poll suggests then Brad Miller may be more vulnerable than he appears.


David Price
2008

B.J. Lawson (R) -------- 37%
David Price (D) -------- 63%

2006
Steve Acuff (R) -------- 35%
David Price (D) -------- 65%

2004
Todd Batchelor (R) ---- 34%
David Price (D) ------- 64%


Brad Miller
2008

Hugh Webster (R) --------- 34.1%
Brad Miller (D) ------------ 71.6%

2006
Vernon Robinson (R) ------- 36%
Brad Miller (D) --------- 64%

2004
Virginia Johnson (R) -------- 41%
Brad Miller (D) ------------- 59%




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Likely Voters Prefer Lawson over Rep. David Price...

polifrog


46.5 -- William Lawson
46.1 -- Rep. David Price

David Price is a 22 year incumbent of NC-4.

I believe that is a statistical tie, but hey, Action Solutions polled folks who are actually running for office unlike PPP.

And Take a look at the internals ...
  • 1038 -------polled
  • 45.4% ------Democrat
  • 28.2% ------Republican
  • 23.68% -----Unaffiliated
  • 2.8 ---------Third Party
WOW!

Visit Lawson for Congress Here...
www.lawsonforcongress.com.


Via Liberty Pulse:
RALEIGH, N.C., September 7, 2010 – William (B.J.) Lawson, MD, Republican challenger to Rep. David Price in North Carolina’s Fourth District, announces a turning point in his campaign as a recent poll shows that 46.5 percent of likely voters would elect him, as opposed to 46.1 percent who would vote to re-elect 22-year incumbent Rep. Price.

...

Action Solutions polled 1,038 registered likely voters here in the Fourth District – respondents included 45.4 percent Democrat, 28.2 percent Republican, 23.6 percent Unaffiliated and 2.8 percent other/third party – which accurately reflects the expected off-year turnout in the district.



Update

Brad Miller and David Price both have districts that have been historically safe and similar over time. If the numbers are truly so close in respect to David Price this poll suggests that Brad Miller may be more vulnerable than he appears.

David Price
2008

B.J. Lawson (R) -------- 37%
David Price (D) -------- 63%

2006
Steve Acuff (R) -------- 35%
David Price (D) -------- 65%

2004
Todd Batchelor (R) ---- 34%
David Price (D) ------- 64%

Brad Miller
2008

Hugh Webster (R) --------- 34.1%
Brad Miller (D) ------------ 71.6%

2006
Vernon Robinson (R) ------- 36%
Brad Miller (D) --------- 64%

2004
Virginia Johnson (R) -------- 41%
Brad Miller (D) ------------- 59%


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Wednesday, August 11, 2010

NC. Gov Bev Perdue Polls Plummets 15% in 2 Months Among Dems-- Lowering Job Prospects Through Corporate Theft from Alcoa....

polifrog



According to a recent Civitas poll Bev Perdue's poor polling numbers are a result of liberal Democrat spending policies and scandal.

According to the live caller poll of 600 likely voters, 40 percent of Democratic voters now have a favorable opinion of Perdue while 28 percent view her unfavorably. Meanwhile, the majority of Republicans continue to hold an unfavorable view of Perdue (23 percent-51 percent). Unaffiliated voters’ opinions are split at a 36-36 percent margin of favorably.

“As we saw last year, it seems that whenever Perdue signs the state budget, her numbers take a hit, especially with the members of her base Democratic voters,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “The scandals within the Highway Patrol seem to be taking their toll on her favorable ratings as well.”


Failed Keynesian Economics can be a hard sale when the citizenry is hold their wallets shut while watching their leaders blow through their tax dollars with ever increasing raises and benefits for bureaucrats.

It is, of course, interesting to see Bev Perdue attempt to take credit for nearly every job created in the private sector brought in through bribes. Not a day goes by that Polifrog fails to see articles such as this from NewObsever.com which parrots Bev Perdue's office:

Ethan Allen plans to expand production at its furniture factory in Western North Carolina and add 90 jobs.

The factory in Old Fort, just east of Asheville, makes dining and bedroom sets and other products.

The new jobs will pay average annual salaries of $26,645, Gov. Bev Perdue's office announced. That's less than the McDowell County average of $27,768. State officials promised the company a grant worth up to $270,000 if it meets its hiring goals.

and others such as this, and this, and this, and this, etc... -- Propaganda. State sponsored, tax payer funded propaganda.

Is it only Polifrog that wonders why "incentives" must be funneled through the inefficiencies of governance? Would it not be fairer, more honest, and efficient if the corporate taxes that have been levied over the decades were lowered or removed entirely in an effort to create massive desire for corporations to locate in NC.

Perhaps easiest way to lure corporations to the state would be to not attempt to steal their assets as in the case with Alcoa's dams:

Gov. Bev Perdue's administration has asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to reject Alcoa's request for a renewal of its license to continue operating the power plants. Perdue wants the commission to rule against Alcoa so that, for the first time in the history of federal power law, North Carolina can recapture the generating facilities from Alcoa.

If I ran a corporation, I would not locate in a state that has a history of setting precedence in favor of the theft of private assists.

Of course, corporations bring jobs, not Bev Purdue.



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Saturday, August 7, 2010

84% of North Carolina Voters View John Edwards Unfavorably ...

polifrog

According to Rasmussen:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Tar Heel State finds that just 11% have a favorable opinion of Edwards. Eighty-four percent (84%) view him unfavorably.

This includes five percent (5%) with a Very Favorable view and 71% who regard him Very Unfavorably.


So there you have it. 5% of North Carolina voters are brain dead bumper-sticker-liberals.



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Friday, August 6, 2010

Sen Richard Burr Poll

polifrog

This is some good news via Rasmussen:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in North Carolina shows Burr capturing 49% support, while Marshall earns 40% of the vote.

Though, under the current conditions Burr's numbers should be higher than 50%.



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Thursday, August 5, 2010

Democrat Pollster, Pat Caddell on the Coming November Elections -- ...Bad Polling News for Rep. Brad Miller...

polifrog


Some of the latest James Carville polling is being released and it is ugly.

Pitchforks!?

No, it's better!

Pat Caddell used the terms
pre-revolutionary,
ugly
,
tidal wave
,
who is soverign? political class or the people
?:



Brad Miller has walked lockstep with the ruling class in Washington and has turned a tin ear toward his constituents. Brad Miller is not your parent's Democrat.

There is an alternative, a constitutionalist .... Bill Randall.

Remember November!



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Friday, July 16, 2010

Governance Through Broken Consent Confirmed...

polifrog


Polifrog has argued that the Pelosi, Reid, Obama triad has governed through broken consent. That is to say, Pelosi, Reid and Obama have put the members of their party in both houses who also represent weak democrat districts in a position where voting with the party is no longer problematic due to the bruising ObamaCare Battle. Add in the ever increasing numbers of retiring Democrats who are also no longer accountable to their constituents and the end result is a liberal lurch to the left.

Constituents in those weakly democratic districts have howled in protest, but they have not only been ignored, they have been ridiculed and impugned with unfair charges of racism and accused of being fertile soil for terrorism.

Democrats are now poised to enter a second stage of governance through broken consent.... Lame-Duck Governance Through Broken Consent. Many congressmen and Senators are set to loose office in November, but their stints won't end until the following year giving them plenty of time to govern through broken consent without accountability. For those Democrats who were reelected, they will have a full term to reform their public images after going along with Lame-Duck Governance Through Broken Consent.

Now comes word via Rasmussen that Polifrog is not alone in his concerns. According to Rasmussen:

... a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 23% of voters nationwide believe the federal government today has the consent of the governed. Sixty-two percent (62%) say it does not, and 15% are not sure.
My...Not even 1 quarter of Americans believe the federal government has their consent to govern.

This is Failed governance and it goes a long way in attributing why Obama is being seen more and more as a failure despite signing ObamaCare into law. There is no reward for signing into law a law that is not only unwanted but actively resisted by the majority.



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