PolifrogBlog

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Showing posts with label keynesian folly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label keynesian folly. Show all posts

Monday, September 19, 2011

More Economic Hair Splitting From the Kitchen Table Class...

polifrog


...taking water out of one end of the pool and, after taking your cut, pouring the rest back into another side of the pool. How does tax-and-spend benefit anything except the government industry?

Yeah, Keynes is fundamentally flawed, but it will remain the heart or western governance as long as government profits from abusive Keynesian economic policy.




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Friday, September 16, 2011

Peter Schiff on the Current and Long Term American Economic Spin Down...

polifrog




Polifrog <---> Peter Shiff -- I'm not sure there is a difference.

Peter Schiff:
We are in a depression in the United States but the depression was interrupted by some economic stimulus that actually made the problems worse. Now as the stimulus is wearing off the depression is resuming with a vengeance because government is interfering with the correction.
...
The source of our misery is government and the solution is free markets, capitalism. That when we did have that a long time ago our economy thrived and we created a lot of wealth which we have since dissipated with redistributionist socialist programs that have been layered onto the economy.
We need to go back to what made us great; not what is bankrupting us.







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Saturday, September 3, 2011

Questioning "a brief recovery"...

polifrog




Victor Davis Hanson:

Zero jobs last month — a net change of zero job growth? It was just announced that last month’s unemployment is still above 9% — despite the nearly five trillion dollars in Keynesian pump-priming, the near zero interest rates, the expanded unemployment and food stamp support, and the government takeovers and subsidies of businesses.

...

In the last 30 months, the Obama administration has created a psychological landscape that finally just seemed, whether fairly or not, too hostile to most employers to risk new hiring and buying. Each act, in and of itself, was irrelevant. Together they are proving catastrophic and doing the near impossible of turning a brief recovery into another recession.

The bit in bold bothers me. Where is the evidence of a recovery outside of stimulus? It seems to me a recovery is economic growth beyond that growth that is the direct result of fiscal stimulus.

I understand the argument that over the long term the positive effects of debt spending are counter balanced by the negative effects of paying down that debt; that the two can be ignored when figuring GDP over the long term due to the fact that they cancel one another out over the long term.

But what of the short term? Should the same logic apply when figuring our GDP over the past quarter? I do not think so, yet that is how GDP is measured.
GDP = C + G + I + NX

where:

"C" is equal to all private consumption, or consumer spending, in a nation's economy
"G" is the sum of government spending
"I" is the sum of all the country's spending on capital
"NX" is the nation's total net exports, calculated as total exports minus total imports. (NX = Exports - Imports)

Where is the debit that would represent debt incurred as a result of debt spending (fiscal stimulus for the concern of this post) that has yet to be paid off? It is ignored based on the long term assumption that one cancels the other even though we generally look at quarterly snapshots of our economy.

This application of long term reasoning to short term measurements is akin to an inappropriate mixing of "tense" and results not only in confusion, but an inflated sense of GDP during recessions. To get a more accurate reading of GDP we should include the debit that is debt incurred as well as the credit that is debt cancelled in GDP for the period of time being measured.

If the argument is that we should use fiscal stimulus to "kick start" our economy, it behooves us to measure whether or not stimulus is having a measurable effect on the economy by subtracting stimulus from GDP measurements. Currently government stimulus is included in GDP thus allowing Keynesians and bureaucrats to point to stimulus inflated GDP numbers as though they were a sign of a strengthening economy and a measure of their success.

It is as if during every recession we have a Keynesian behind the wheel of a stalled car and all the effete fellow can muster is to turn the key and point to the jittery needle on the tachometer as a his measure of success. Then when the car battery is drained and the public's tolerance for debt spending is similarly drained our Keynsian turns to the public and blames them for the tachometer needle that again rests on zero. What we need is a tachometer that reads only when the engine is running on its own.

The end result of measuring GDP as we currently do is to give the appearance of success where there is none and give the impression of "a brief recovery" in the past when there is not one.

Green shoots .... sigh.






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Saturday, August 6, 2011

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Foundering on the Rocks of Keynesian Spending and History...

polifrog



IBD:


A day after purchasing managers reported an "unexpected" slump in manufacturing, another surprise report shows consumer spending falling for the first time in nearly two years. Double dip, anyone?

Despite the largest Keynesian spending splurge in the history of the planet, the economy continues to founder.



Yep, history repeats.

Perhaps, as Keynesians argue, what we needed for Keynes to have worked was more spending as in the case with WWII.

However, when being asked to believe that WWII represented a Keynesian success, we are being asked to believe that Keynesian solutions require us not only to raise national spending to well over 60% of GDP, but that we must also destroy the industrial capabilities of friend and foe alike, destroy their infrastructures, destroy their homes and cities, kill a large part of their workforce, have them kill a large portion of our workforce, and then have them pay for retooling our economy so that we may sell them goods, climb back from recession and give Keynes a pat on the back for a job well done.

Really? We have to do all this to make Keynesianism work?

Really?

If it takes rehashing WWII for Keynesianism to work, I want no part of it. And when Keynesians have only WWII to rely on as an example of a Keynesian success story, they have lost their argument.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Paul Krugman - Blind to Patterns and Blinded by Keynes...

polifrog


We all know Will Smith. Successful. When asked about the source of his success one of his answers has been his reliance on being able to recognize patterns of success and jumping on. For instance: before Men in Black Smith recognized that up to that point over half of the top 10 grossing movies had, as he put it, "creatures". When given the opportunity to star in Men in Black he relied on his recognition of a pattern of success when accepting the role.

Will Smith:

No. I do not believe in getting trapped in a pattern when you recognize the pattern. The child-actor are obvious. I am kind of a student of the patterns of the universe. When my partner, James Lassiter, and I came to Hollywood, I said, "I want to be the biggest movie star in the world." We observed that of the top ten movies of all time, ten were special effects or animation. Nine were special effects or animation with creatures. Eight were special effects or animation with creatures and a love story. So we made Independence Day. When you see the , you just try to put yourself in the position to get lucky.


Not all of us are as proficient as Will Smith in recognizing patterns to jump on to or off of, though.

Krugman had this to say via Huffpost:

"From the perspective of a rational person -- in other words a progressive -- we shouldn't be talking about spending cuts at all now," Krugman said during a roundtable discussion on ABCNews' This Week With Christiane Amanpour. "We have 9 percent unemployment. These spending cuts are going to worsen unemployment. It's even going to hold the long-run fiscal picture because we have a situation where more and more people are becoming permanent long-term unemployed."

When is a Keynesian wrong? The answer is never, as they are the economic back beat to Climate change.

Apparently there are no conditions under which either theory is falsifiable even when patterns of failure emerge...

Simple questions:

::Why is it that the recession in the early 30's became the great depression after Keynesian expansion?

::Why was there a recession in 37 (until recently a recession second only to the Great Depression in severity) after years of enacting Keynesian solutions?

::If WWII was an example of Keynesian success why was it immediately followed by the recession of 45 at the war's end?

::If Japan executed one of the greatest Keynesian experiments in modern history then why do they languish in a perma-recession.

::If the US invested it's own round of Keynesian based solutions beginning in 2008, then why does the US seem to be entering it's own perma-recession in the same way that it did during the great depression and in the same way that Japan has?

::If Keynesian Theory is intended to "kick-start" an economy out of recession, why was there a greater rate of growth after recessions prior to the use of Keynesian solutions?

Keynesian solutions have racked up an impressive pattern of extending recessions. Only the most credentialed among us can pass off the stupidity of arguing otherwise otherwise as intellectual thought.




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Sunday, July 10, 2011

Using Keynes to Remedy the Inequity of Rising Standards of Living Between Generations...

polifrog



Today Dr. Brod gave us the generational redistibutionst's argument for Keynesianism:

Economists have generally pointed out that given steadily rising standards of living, what would really be inequitable would be leaving no debt to future generations (which is the core point of Queenan's article).

In most cultures leaving a stronger, wealthier tomorrow to subsequent generations would be a source of pride.

Only in liberalism would such success be a source of envy.

How best to remedy the inequity of the rising standards of living that benefit unborn generations?

Keynes and its generational redistribution, of course. Diminishing tomorrow for today through debt.

The result being the uniform equity of no rising standard of living across generations. Heck, we know it works, just look at Japan and it's success with Keynesian sourced generational redistribution otherwise known as Japan's 20 year recession.

Ultimately arguing for Keynes' generational redistributionist qualities is an admission of Keynesian born economic stagnancy and failed growth policy.


Bugs can be features to the socialist.
Insidious.



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Why Not Rob the Future of its Higher Standard of Living?

polifrog



Dr. Brod: (UNCG Economist)

Why not leave our children and grandchildren with debt? Why do they get to be the special generation with no debt? Has helicopter parenting progressed so far that we can't even run a deficit to save the economy? Why do our hearts ache more for future generations than they do for the millions of people who are unemployed right now?

Why?

Because it shifts real loss to subsequent generations for the mirage of a repaired economy today. As Dr. Brod has said in reference to the recession of 1937 which was second only to the current recession in severity after the Great Depression:

...what we saw in the 1930s is that fiscal stimulus worked while it was tried, and didn't work when it was pulled back.

In other words we traded real debt for no lasting gain. Keynes failed, FDR failed. The nation suffered.

We saw it again with the conclusion of WWII which was followed not by boom but by bust in the recession of 1945.

And in the most glaring example there is Japan which continuous the feel good Keynesian stimulus that has resulted not in boom, but a full generation of economic stagnancy. In Japan we see firsthand the real loss that was transferred to the unborn when Japanese leaders chose Keynesian solutions.

Those unborn are now young adults enduring the fiscal abuse metered out by elders who asked themselves:

Why not leave our children and grandchildren with debt? Why do they get to be the special generation with no debt?
and chose poorly.



Update:
Welcome Daily Pundit readers...


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Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Duke Power Applies for 15% Inflation Hike, Keynesians Observe No Inflation...

polifrog



Charlotte Observer:




Duke Energy filed Friday for an overall 15 percent rate hike, its largest such request in North Carolina in at least 20 years.

...

N.C. residential rates would go up 17 percent, adding $19 to the average $97 monthly bill. Commercial and industrial rates would rise 14 percent.

The Keynesian and statist view is that there is no inflation, of course they remove energy and food from their statistical representations of the data.

Keynesians bending reality through statistics...




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Saturday, June 25, 2011

The Great Econ Hoodwink...

polifrog



Economics is a humanities masquerading as a science. Keynesians got it fundamentally wrong.

...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being.



Yep...



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Monday, April 25, 2011

Liberty in Sync With Econnomics - Ron Paul Runs...

polifrog



In some good anti-Keynesian news Ron Paul is running:

Sources close to Paul, who is in his 12th term in the House, said he will unveil an exploratory presidential committee, a key step in gearing up for a White House race. He will also unveil the campaign’s leadership team in Iowa, where the first votes of the presidential election will be cast in caucuses next year.

This is a man who's sense of liberty and understanding of economics are in sync, a statement that can be made of no proponent of Keynesian Theory.

Additionally, while the democratization of the Middle East is important, it is less important then ending the Keynesian theft of prosperity and liberty.



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Sunday, April 24, 2011

Keynes' Diminished Western World...

polifrog





Via Instapundit:
“‘Daddy, is it really true that people used to fly to the Moon when you were a boy?’ It shook me, because that’s how a Dark Age begins.”

It takes decades of theft from the future to kill a productive capitalist society but the beauty of Keynesian Theory may have managed what Communism could not.

A sloppy disingenuous thank you to John Maynard Keynes from polifrog:




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A Chinese US Debt Dump?

polifrog




For those of you not in the know there have not been enough buyers of US debt at current interest rates. In an effort to keep interest rates down the Federal Reserve has been buying US debt off the private market with "printed" dollars (in quotes as the dollars only exist as data) for more than the US government sells it for. This creates an appetite for US debt in the private markets thus keeping interest rates on US debt lower than they would otherwise be. In recent months the Federal Reserve has been clearing the private market at the rate of 70% of new debt issuance. In effect the Federal Reserve is buying 70% of new debt issuance.

The Fed hopes to eventually pass the baton of support to a healthier economy, but the economy has continued to lag growing ever more dependent on government support.

QE is a sign of US fiscal weakness.

Fewer and fewer see US debt as a good store of value. Europe, battling its own debt problems is a poor market for US debt, while Japan is caught between demographic issues, a 20 Keynesian born recession, and most recently the massive costs associated with earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disasters has become a poor market for US debt as well.

Now in the wake of Obama's spend more budget proposal which makes self imposed American austerity an unlikely course China has joined S&P in viewing the US as a poorer investment. It seems China may not only cease buying US debt, but eventually dump 66% of their US debt.

Our congress' inability to reconcile the fiscal incoherence between its desire to spend and its ability to raise taxes has turned to debt to cover the difference and in so doing has laid its neck across the Chinese fiscal chopping block.

Schemes on dreams -- A poor choice.


Via Zero Hedge:
China appears to be getting ready to cut its USD reserves by roughly the amount of dollars that was recently printed by the Fed, or $2 trilion or so. And to think that this comes just as news that the Japanese pension fund will soon be dumping who knows what. So, once again, how about that "end of QE" again?

From Xinhua:

China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 197.4 billion U.S. dollars in the first three months of this year to 3.04 trillion U.S. dollars by the end of March.

Xia Bin, a member of the monetary policy committee of the central bank, said on Tuesday that 1 trillion U.S. dollars would be sufficient. He added that China should invest its foreign exchange reserves more strategically, using them to acquire resources and technology needed for the real economy.




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Saturday, March 5, 2011

Mitt Romney - Carter/Obama Misery Index...

polifrog



Mitt Romney:


He created a deeper recession, and delayed the recovery. The consequence is soaring numbers of Americans enduring unemployment, foreclosures and bankruptcies. This is the Obama Misery Index, and it is at a record high. It’s going to take more than new rhetoric to put Americans back to work — it’s going to take a new president.


Keynesian Fail not once, and not just twice, but every time tried. Perhaps one day we will learn that deeper is better than longer.


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Sunday, January 23, 2011

Graphing Keyensian Born Atrophy...

polifrog



This graph via the Atlantic illustrates the success our nation has had in combating the gyrations of our market . I question, though, whether this Keynesian "win" is a net positive for our nation in that the painful removal of fat, inefficiency, poor regulation, and poor governance are less likely to be forced from the system during unrealized market downturns.




How?

We have used Keynesianism to curb swings in the market. The result has been market stability and a commensurate lowering in the cost of gov. debt. This has the overt appearance of a positive, but has allowed for the accumulation of inefficiency.

This quest for stability has produced not only an economy that suffers from the accumulated gluttony of shallow downturns, but also governance that relies on the resultant cheap debt to avoid the hard choices of reconciling the fiscal incoherence of a citizenry desiring both increased gov. services and lower taxes.

This Keynesian born plaque thickens the ether through which our economy operates weakening corporations and increasing gov. debt until it becomes unsustainable.

Our current downturn in which we are bailing out banks and other weak corporations while straining our nation's ability to borrow, has revealed just how close to unsustainable our 70 year experiment in "gov. debting" away economic downturns has become.

Where once America produced trim and lean corporations that could lead globally, America now produces morbidly obese corporations addicted to government's Keynesian protection from market downturns. American Corporations have, in general, become weak and uncompetitive. Witness the bailed out as the most obvious.

Economies must be allowed to correct.

Do we truly expect jobs from this non competitive Keynesian fat burger?


H/T EdCone
end of rant

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Hyperinflation -- The Loss of Faith in a Currency...

polifrog


Coming on the heels of Polifrog's previous post is a post by Ganzalo Lira in which he argues that hyperinflation was not just more inflation, but it is, at its root, a loss of faith in a currency. The piece below is a "hands on" description of the macroeconomic arguments he put forth in this previous post on the same topic. Read them both.

Gonzalo Lira:
What I do know is, One, a hyperinflationary event will happen, following the crash in Treasuries. Two, commodities will be the go-to medium for value storage. Three, all asset classes will collapse in short order. And Four—and most importantly—civil society will not collapse along with the dollar. Civil society will stumble about like a drunken sailor, but eventually right itself and carry on with a new normal.







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